Methodology
Korea Semiconductor Cycle Index
The Korea Semiconductor Score (KSS) expresses, as a single number between 0 and 100, how far Korean semiconductor equities have moved away from their own long-term trend. Readings near 100 mean prices sit well above trend; readings near 0 mean they sit well below it.
The index is built from price and trend only. It contains no earnings data, no DRAM or NAND contract prices, and no inventory figures. KSS therefore summarises how the market is currently pricing the sector — not whether the underlying business cycle is strong or weak.
Every formula and weight used in the calculation is published below so that the same inputs reproduce the same number.
Inputs and weights
Each input is converted to a 0–100 score and combined with the weights below. If an input is unavailable, it is excluded and the remaining weights are renormalised to sum to 100%.
| Components | Weight |
|---|---|
Samsung & SK hynix — 200-day MA deviation How far each stock trades from its own 200-day moving average, averaged across the two. This is the most direct measure of position versus long-term trend, so it carries the largest weight. | 30% |
SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) — 200-day MA deviation The global semiconductor benchmark relative to its own trend. Korean semiconductor equities tend to track SOX, so it enters as a separate input. | 20% |
Samsung & SK hynix — drawdown from 52-week high How far the two stocks have fallen from their 52-week highs. A deeper drawdown pushes the index down, which dampens the pull of the deviation terms alone. | 20% |
Above or below the 50-day MA Whether a majority of the two stocks trade above their 50-day moving average. A short-term momentum flag scored 70 if above and 30 if below — binary, so its weight is capped. | 15% |
KOSPI — 200-day MA deviation The broad Korean market versus its own trend, included to separate a semiconductor-specific move from a market-wide one. | 15% |
Score mapping
200-day MA deviation → score
A deviation of 0% maps to 50. +40% maps to 100 and −40% maps to 0, linearly, clipped at both ends. KOSPI uses a narrower ±30% range because the index itself is far less volatile than single stocks.
52-week drawdown → score
At the high (0%) the score is 100; −30% maps to 40 and −50% or worse maps to 0. Deeper drawdowns therefore reduce the reading.
50-day MA flag → score
70 if a majority of the two stocks trade above their 50-day average, otherwise 30. Because it has no intermediate values, its weight is held to 15%.
Data and updates
Prices are daily closes for Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), SK hynix (000660.KS), the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (^SOX) and KOSPI (^KS11), adjusted for dividends and splits.
Moving averages and 52-week highs are computed on each series' own trading calendar. Korean and US market holidays differ, so aligning to a shared calendar before averaging would distort the rolling windows. Each indicator is computed first and only then aligned to KOSPI trading days.
The index updates once daily, after both markets have closed — computing intraday would mix in prices that have not settled. This is an end-of-day series, not a real-time one.
2000-10-09 ~ 2026-07-21 · 6,352
Limitations
- No fundamentals. Contract prices for DRAM and NAND, inventory levels and capital expenditure are not included. Price alone does not distinguish a cycle bottom from the early stage of a decline.
- Two stocks only. Samsung and SK hynix drive the reading, so divergent moves in materials, equipment or back-end firms are not captured.
- The weights are a design choice. They were assigned by judgement about what each input measures, not fitted statistically. Different weights produce different readings.
- A high reading is not a forecast. In the historical record, stretched readings have both persisted and reversed quickly. The index measures where prices are, not where they are going.
- This is not an official index. It is not produced by an exchange or index provider and does not underlie any financial product.
Frequently asked questions
- Does a high KSS mean I should sell?
- No. This is not a trading signal. A high reading states that prices are far above their long-term trend; it says nothing about how long that will last. The historical record contains stretched readings that held for months.
- Why does the history start in 2000?
- A 200-day moving average needs at least 200 trading days, and the point at which all four series are simultaneously available is the second half of 2000. Earlier dates are excluded because some inputs cannot be computed.
- My number differs slightly from yours.
- Most often this is timing. Computing the index intraday or before the open uses prices that have not settled. This site publishes a value only after both closes are final, and never revises a value once published.
Download the full history (kss.json) · 2000-10-09 ~ 2026-07-21 · CC BY 4.0