Korea Semiconductor Cycle Index
A 0–100 froth gauge built from Samsung, SK hynix, SOX and KOSPI
Today's reading
Above trend but not at an extreme. This is where the index spends most of its time during an advance.
As of 2026-07-21 · Top 20.4% of the full record
The share of the full history that sits below today's value. Closer to 100 means a historically rare, high reading.
Full history
6,352 trading days from 2000-10-09 to 2026-07-21, recomputed with the same formula throughout. Because the history is backfilled across the entire available price record rather than starting the day the index launched, today's reading can be compared directly against past cycles.
Components
Each input is mapped to a 0–100 score and then averaged with the weights below. Higher always pushes the index up. If an input cannot be computed, it is dropped and the remaining weights are rescaled to 100%.
| Components | Weight | Raw | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
Samsung & SK hynix — 200-day MA deviation How far each stock trades from its own 200-day moving average, averaged across the two. This is the most direct measure of position versus long-term trend, so it carries the largest weight. | 30% | +51.2% | 100.0 |
SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) — 200-day MA deviation The global semiconductor benchmark relative to its own trend. Korean semiconductor equities tend to track SOX, so it enters as a separate input. | 20% | +36.7% | 95.9 |
Samsung & SK hynix — drawdown from 52-week high How far the two stocks have fallen from their 52-week highs. A deeper drawdown pushes the index down, which dampens the pull of the deviation terms alone. | 20% | -32.8% | 34.3 |
Above or below the 50-day MA Whether a majority of the two stocks trade above their 50-day moving average. A short-term momentum flag scored 70 if above and 30 if below — binary, so its weight is capped. | 15% | Below | 30.0 |
KOSPI — 200-day MA deviation The broad Korean market versus its own trend, included to separate a semiconductor-specific move from a market-wide one. | 15% | +20.2% | 83.6 |
Reading bands
- Overheated (75 and above)
- Prices sit far above their long-term trend. Historically this band has both persisted for months and reversed sharply — it does not resolve in one direction.
- Extended (50 – 75)
- Above trend but not at an extreme. This is where the index spends most of its time during an advance.
- Neutral (25 – 50)
- Prices are near their long-term trend. The index carries little information about direction in this band.
- Depressed / deep drawdown (Below 25)
- A large drawdown from the 52-week high with prices below trend. This band has appeared near lows, but it can also stay low while a decline continues.